“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including: • The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. • China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. • A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. • Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. • The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead. For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com

Alperovitz (president, Center for Economic Alternatives) examines the fateful decision of August 1945 and concludes that the US did not need to deploy the atomic bomb to win the war. He shows that Japan was close to surrender and reveals that Truman was advised of alternatives to the bomb by civilian and military advisors, pinning partial blame on incoming secretary of state James F. Byrnes, who was convinced the bomb would be an important diplomatic instrument in dealing with the Soviets. For general readers. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

In this urgent new book, Noam Chomsky surveys the dangers and prospects of our early twenty-first century. Exploring challenges such as the growing gap between North and South, American exceptionalism (including under President Barack Obama), the fiascos of Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S.-Israeli assault on Gaza, and the recent financial bailouts, he also sees hope for the future and a way to move forward - in the democratic wave in Latin America and in the global solidarity movements that suggest ''real progress toward freedom and justice.'' Hopes and Prospects is essential reading for anyone who is concerned about the primary challenges still facing the human race.

Noting that the current period has much in common with the Colombian Age of Imperialism, during which Western Europe conquered most of the world, Chomsky focuses on various historical moments in this march of imperial power, up to and including the current axis where the U.S., Germany, and Japan share world economic control with the U.S. reveling in a monopoly of military might.

In this study of global politics, the author challenges conventional definitions of the "New World Order", examining the acts of imperialism and economic manipulation which have produced the unbalanced world order of the 1990s. Based on three lectures given at the University of Cairo in 1993 - each considerably expanded and updated - the author begins with a reconsideration of the Cold War, revealing how it became a pretext for the USA to expand politically, economically and militarily under the guise of self-defence. The book also offers a new commentary on the Gulf War and the relationship between America and Britain and the "enemy" before, during and after hostilities. In a detailed analysis of the strategic manoeuvres between the West and the Third World, Chomsky concludes that George Bush's New World Order has become a domestic and international propaganda tool in the hands of the powerful. Containing a new epilogue for 1997, this work offers an assault on the legitimacy of the status quo, old and new.

Zero-sum logic, in which one country's gain looks like another's loss, has prevented the world from reaching an agreement to fight climate change and threatens to create a global economic stalemate. This book argues that international politics is about to become much more volatile.

AFRICAN POLITICAL SYSTEMS by Fortes, Meyer CONTENTS: EDITORS' NOTE. PREFACE. Professor A. R. Radcliffe-Brown, M.A. (Cantab.), Emeritus Professor of Social Anthropology in the University of Oxford INTRODUCTION. Dr. M. Fortes and Professor E. E. Evans-Pntchard Aims of this Book. A Representative Sample of African. Societies. Political Philosophy and Comparative Politics. The Two Types of Political System Studied. Kinship in Political Organization. The Influence of Demography. The Influence of Mode of Livelihood. Composite Political Systems and the Conquest Theory. The Territorial Aspect. The Balance of Forces in the Political System, The Incidence and Function of Organised Force. Differences in Response to European Rule. The Mystical Values Associated with Political Office. The Problem of the Limits of the Political Group. THE KINGDOM OF THE ZULU OF SOUTH AFRICA. Max Gluckman. B.A. (How.) (Witwatersrand), D.Phil. (Oxon). Professor of Social Anthropology in the University of Manchester Historical Introduction. The Zulu King and the State. Status and Political Power. The Tribes within the Nation, Sanctions on Authority and the Stability of the State. The People and their Leaders. The Period of European Rule. Conclusion. THE POLITICAL ORGANIZATION OF THE NGWATO OF BECHUANALAND PROTECTORATE. /. Schapera, M.A, (Cape town), Ph.D., D.Sc.(London), F.R.S.S.Af. Professor of Social Anthropology in the University of Cape toton Ethnic Composition and Territorial Constitution. The Administrative System. Powers and Authority of the Chief. Rights and Responsibilities of Chieftainship. THE POLITICAL SYSTEM OF THE BEMBA TRIBE NORTHEASTERN RHODESIA. Audrey I. Richards, M.A-(Cantab\ Ph.D.(London). Reader in Social Anthropology at the London School of Economics and Political Science, University of London 83Bantu Political Organization Some General Features The Bemba Tribe: Tribal Composition Social Grouping Kinship Local Grouping Rank Other Principles of Social Grouping Economic Background White Administration. Bases of Authority: The Dogma of Descent Legal Rules of Descent and Succession. Functions and Prerogatives of Authority: The Headman the Chief. The Machinery of Government: Administrative Military Judicial Advisory, The Integration of the Tribe. Post-European Changes: New Authorities introduced Effects of the 1929 Ordinances. THE KINGDOM OF ANKOLE IN UGANDA K. Oberg, A.M., Ph.D.(Chicago)t Escola Livre de Sociologia e Politica, SSo Paulo, Brazil Traditional and Historical Background. Political Status, the King and the Royal Kraal. Tribute. The Cult of Bagyendanwa. Succession. Conclusion.

How has Hungary, a country once in the vanguard of political and economic reform under Communism, become a chilling example of the new threats confronting democracy in Central Europe? The return of Hungary's demons of the past--nationalism, ethnic hatred, deeply-rooted corruption and authoritarian tendencies--has engendered international concern. Since winning a two-thirds majority in parliament in the spring of 2010, the dynamic right-wing populist Prime Minister Viktor Orban has embarked on a sweeping and ruthless concentration of power and has sought to reshape the state in his own image. A new constitution and a sweeping series of laws and decrees--radical changes in the judicial and electoral system and the dismantling of constitutional safeguards ensuring the autonomy of the executive branch and the freedom of the media--seem destined to ensure a long-term hegemony of the far right. Meanwhile a campaign of vituperative nationalist rhetoric and the granting of voting rights to 2.5 million ethnic Hungarians living in neighbouring countries are bound to increase tensions in this volatile corner of Europe. Lendvai offers readers an unsparing and dispassionate account, based on his intimate personal knowledge of Hungary's major political figures and its political culture, of the turbulent events since the collapse of the Communist regime which affect not only Hungary, but also the political and economic stability of the Danube basin.

Beneficial social and economic exchange relies on a certain level of trust. But trust is a delicate matter, not least in the former socialist countries where illegitimate behaviour by governments made distrust a habit. The chapters in this volume analyze the causes and the effects of the lack of social trust in post-socialist countries. The contributions originated in the Collegium Budapest project on Honesty and Trust: Theory and Experience in the Light of the Post-Socialist Transition. A second volume entitled, Building a Trustworthy State in Post-Socialist Transition , is being published simultaneously.

The historic June 2000 North-South summit spawned new hopes for the future of Korea. The prospect of winding down a half-century of confrontation on the Korean peninsula seemed within the realm of possibility. north Korea's secretive leader Kim Jong Il suddenly emerged as a public figure and Pyongang rapidly established diplomatic ties with a host of America's friends in Europe and Asia. Yet as the months have passed, even if Korea has turned a page in its history, none of the basic issues of the Korea question have been resolved. A new administration in Washington faces a new set of challenges in Korea with profound implications for U.S. interests in East Asia. Tensions remain lower than at any time in recent memory, but the demilitarized zone separating North from South Korea remains the most heavily armed border on earth. North-South relations face an uncertain future, and few signs of real change inside North Korea are evident. There is growing uncertainty surrounding the direction of inter-Korean relations, the prospects for dealing with North Korea, and the likelihood for reform in Pyongyang. The task force, co-chaired by Morton I. Abramowitz and James T. Laney, argues that diplomatic gains in recent years are not irreversible. Successful implementation of the Agreed Framework between the United States and North Korea, which froze Pyongyang's known nuclear program in exchange for two light-water reactors and other economic benefits, faces considerable challenges inherited by the Bush administration. Despite eleventh-hour talks on North Korea's ballistic missile program in the waning weeks of the Clinton administration, it remains largely unconstrained. The conventional armsstandoff at the 38th parallel also continues unabated. Verification, too, persists as a key problem facing both the nuclear and missile issues.

Very few Americans regretted seeing Thomas Jefferson leave the White House in the winter of 1809. The man who led the Republican party from opposition to power and who overwhelmingly defeated Charles C. Pinckney in 1804 had had a disastrous second term. The military stalemate in Europe with Napoleon controlling the continent and the Royal Navy ruling the seas ushered the Franco-British war into a new phase of blockades and counter-blockades with both sides raiding neutral American shipping. The administration responded by prohibiting all American exports to the belligerents. The Embargo brought the booming American economy to a screeching halt, and as economic distress grew resentment over the measure spread from merchants to farmers and mechanics.The Origins of Jeffersonian Commercial Policy and Diplomacy examines the evolution of Jefferson's commercial ideas and policies from his days as a young revolutionary to his presidency. It analyzes the way in which Jefferson worked out his conflicting approaches to commerce not only as a thinker but also as a policy maker. It examines the tensions between rejecting commerce altogether as a threat to republican virtue, and promoting commerce as a necessary vehicle for the maintenance of American prosperity. It traces Jefferson's life-long commitment to the policy of commercial coercion and places American policy in the context of the global competition between England and France. Without deviating from the narrative format, Professor Ben-Atar reflects on a variety of contested issues in early American historiography, from the debate over eighteenth-century republicanism to the birth of American foreign policy.