“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including: • The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. • China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. • A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. • Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. • The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead. For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com

Our rate of oil discovery has reached its peak and will never be exceeded; rather, it is certain to decline - perhaps rapidly - forever forward. Meanwhile, in the 20th century we have developed lifestyles firmly rooted in the promise of an endless, cheap supply. inevitable fossil fuel shortage we face and our most urgent environmental policy decisions. He outlines the drastic effects a fossil fuel shortage will bring down on us and shows us that there is an important silver lining to the need to switch to other sources of energy, for when we have burned up all the available oil, the earth's climate will have moved toward a truly life-threatening state.

A dramatic transformation of global power is under way, one only dimly recognized by most Americans. As economics and trade now loom larger than nuclear stockpiles or Cold War ideology, those countries with the fastest growing economies have begun to rewrite the rules of power and influence in the world. These nations are the Big Emerging Markets, and for too long we have failed to recognize their importance. We can no longer afford that luxury. The Big Ten is the essential guide to the ten most important Big Emerging Markets. Jeffrey E. Garten, the Dean of the Yale School of Management and the former Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, explains who they are, why they have burst onto the world scene, and how they will reshape the world in the twenty-first century. The ten countries to watch are spread across the globe: Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina in the Americas; China, India, Indonesia, and South Korea in Asia; Poland and Turkey in Europe; and in Africa, South Africa. The Big Ten are bigger than most people realize: they are home to half the world's population, and the United States exports more products to these countries than to Europe and Japan combined. They also wield immense political influence in many of the world's most critical regions. Moreover, American industrial firms, mutual funds, and pension plans have begun to invest heavily in these dynamic economies, making our own prosperity increasingly dependent on theirs.While the Big Ten offer new opportunities for the United States, Garten observes their potential political instability could create economic havoc around the world. In addition, they pose powerful ethical and strategic dilemmas. The BEMs do not share our values regarding human rights, child labor, corruption, or environmental degradation, and our growing contacts with these societies are sure to violate our notions of fairness and our moral sensibilities. And as the Big Ten grow and mature as regional powers, they will pose unprecedented challenges to American global leadership.Drawing on his first-hand experiences at the highest levels of government, finance, and academia, Garten advances a comprehensive plan for America to meet the challenges of this emerging new world. he addresses the critical questions facing American policy makers, business executives, educators, and concerned citizens, and he outlines the bold changes that will be necessary if we are to control our national destiny in the decades to come. The Big Ten will help readers understand the importance of NAFTA, the rise of China, the connection between trade and human rights, and the imperatives for American foreign policy, business, and higher education. Packed with powerful insights and real-life stories from the front lines of international commerce, The Big Ten will redefine the way we think about America's global role in the twenty-first century.

Future developments in war, armed conflict and international relations are central to our collective fate in this century. This book looks forward by considering the forces that will drive changes in military organizations, sources of conflict, the power of states and the nature of the international system. New military technologies will alter how wars are fought and will influence the balance of power. Changes in the global environment will provide new causes of conflict and will change economic priorities. As a result, the state will survive as the key social institution and populations will look to it to acquire and to distribute scarce resources like water, energy and land. Many of the changes that seem transformatory today, like globalization, the internet and mass consumerism, will be shown to be less significant than we believe them to be. Hirst puts such changes into perspective by comparing them with the revolutionary changes in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries in Europe: the firepower revolution, the rise of the sovereign territorial state and the parallel development of the international system, and the creation of world trade. These basic structures of the modern world are still with us and will remain, despite major changes in twenty-first-century society. This book will appeal to students of politics, political sociology & international relations as well as the interested general reader.